Generated: April 06, 2026
Internal OnlyNetflix expects ad revenue to nearly double to $3B in 2026 from $1.5B in 2025, contributing 25% of the streamer's $6B incremental revenue guidance. 80% of Netflix CTV ad buys now run programmatically. Netflix expanded DSP partnerships with Amazon, Google DV360, The Trade Desk, and Yahoo DSP, with expanded targeting via Amazon Audiences launching in Q2.
The IAB projects US CTV advertising will reach approximately $38 billion in 2026, growing 13.8% year-over-year from $33.35B in 2025. CTV growth trails only social media (14.6%) among digital channels. Major cyclical events including FIFA World Cup and US midterm elections will drive incremental spend.
The $38B CTV market growing at nearly 14% means the total addressable market for ML-optimized CTV bidding expands by ~$4.6B this year alone. With 90%+ of CTV now transacted programmatically, Moloco's pitch that outcome-based bidding beats manual IO buying becomes self-evident. Sales teams should lead with this IAB data to establish market inevitability in every pitch.
A survey of CTV advertisers found that nearly 70% expect to increase spending by an average of 17% in 2026. The majority of new CTV budgets are being reallocated from linear TV, with 45% of marketers moving budgets directly from linear to CTV. Digital display, paid search, and social media are secondary funding sources.
The 45% linear-to-CTV reallocation rate means a wave of advertisers accustomed to broad demo buys are entering a precision-targeting environment for the first time. These advertisers need hand-holding on outcome measurement — exactly where Moloco's attribution and ML optimization stack creates differentiation. Sales should target linear-transitioning brands as a priority segment this quarter.
Approximately 40% of every dollar spent in the open CTV programmatic market is wasted due to inaccurate data, translating to $7.4B in lost CTV value in 2026. Bot fraud accounts for 65% of all CTV fraud, and 20.8% of CTV impressions never reached a real screen. Among UK advertisers, only 28% feel confident their CTV ads appear in fraud-free placements.
The $7.4B waste figure is simultaneously alarming and opportunistic for Moloco. ML-driven bid optimization that can identify and avoid fraudulent inventory in real-time is a concrete, quantifiable value proposition. If Moloco's models can reduce waste by even 10% compared to competitors, that's hundreds of millions in recovered ad value. This data point should be in every sales deck: 'The CTV market wastes $7.4B on bad data. Our ML models are trained to separate signal from noise.' The 65% bot fraud rate in CTV also argues for investing in pre-bid fraud detection as a product differentiator.
Roku maintains dominant 32% share of the open programmatic CTV market, which is estimated to reach $6.8B in 2026 (up from $6B in 2025). However, the supply side is shifting from open auctions to controlled deals — PMP deals grew from 41% in 2023 to 59% in 2024. Up to 50% of streaming advertisers expect to fund CTV increases by pulling from search and social budgets.
The PMP deal shift from 41% to 59% is a structural change that favors DSPs with strong publisher relationships and ML-driven deal optimization — both Moloco strengths. Open auction shrinkage means performance-based bidders who can win in curated environments will outperform spray-and-pray approaches. Moloco's outcome-based bidding is well-suited for PMPs where CPMs are higher but conversion intent is stronger. The search/social budget migration is also notable — advertisers bringing lower-funnel expectations to CTV will demand the ROAS accountability Moloco delivers.
E.W. Scripps launched Scripps Sports Network on March 24 as a free ad-supported streaming channel featuring 100+ live events annually including women's sports and emerging leagues. Separately, MotoAmerica secured an exclusive Samsung TV Plus FAST deal for live racing through 2027. Complex TV launched April 1 across Amazon Prime, Roku, Samsung TV Plus, and six other platforms.
Live sports on FAST channels is significant because sports inventory commands premium CPMs and delivers highly engaged, lean-forward audiences — ideal for performance measurement. Scripps Sports across multiple FAST platforms means this inventory is biddable through programmatic pipes. Moloco should monitor whether these sports FAST channels open programmatic guaranteed paths, as app marketers running CTV campaigns during live sports see higher conversion rates.
The 2026 IAB NewFronts were defined by three themes: performance measurement, first-party data integration, and Amazon DSP distribution deals. Publishers are increasingly pitching advertisers on outcome-based metrics rather than reach, and Amazon DSP is becoming the common distribution layer for CTV inventory across multiple platforms.
NewFronts shifting from 'reach and frequency' pitches to 'performance and data' pitches confirms the market narrative Moloco has been building. When publishers themselves lead with outcomes, it validates Moloco's buyer-side optimization story. However, Amazon DSP becoming the default distribution layer is a structural risk — if Amazon controls both supply (Prime Video) and demand (DSP), independent performance platforms face intermediation. Moloco should aggressively pursue direct publisher integrations to avoid Amazon toll-gating.
Cadent announced that 100% of its SSP CTV supply paths are now direct, far exceeding the industry benchmark of 75%. This sets a new standard for supply path transparency in programmatic CTV, addressing advertiser concerns about resold or opaque inventory chains.
Supply path quality is a prerequisite for ML optimization — garbage in, garbage out. Cadent's 100% direct standard means every impression Moloco bids on through Cadent has verified provenance, which improves model training data quality and campaign outcomes. This is a proof point Moloco can reference when advertisers raise CTV fraud concerns: 'We prioritize SSPs with direct supply paths like Cadent's standard.' It also differentiates from competitors running on murkier supply chains.
Texas AG Ken Paxton filed lawsuits against Sony, Samsung, LG, Hisense, and TCL for alleged privacy violations through automatic content recognition (ACR) technology. Courts granted temporary restraining orders against Hisense and Samsung, halting certain ACR data collection in Texas. This is the first major ACR enforcement since the FTC's 2017 Vizio case.
ACR restrictions are a double-edged sword for Moloco. On the bearish side, ACR data powers household-level viewing graphs that some CTV platforms use for targeting — if collection is curtailed, those targeting signals degrade. On the bullish side, Moloco's ML approach using first-party advertiser data and contextual signals is less dependent on ACR than competitors relying on device-level viewing data. This regulatory trend advantages platforms with robust first-party data activation — a core Moloco differentiator. Sales teams should position this as 'our targeting doesn't depend on data practices under legal scrutiny.'
Kentucky, Indiana, and Rhode Island privacy laws took effect January 1, 2026. Kentucky's HB 692 notably adds 'automatic content recognition' as a category of sensitive data, requiring explicit consent for ACR data collection on smart TVs. New laws impose stricter limits on targeted ads to minors, profiling, cross-site tracking, and geolocation-based marketing.
Kentucky classifying ACR as 'sensitive data' is a bellwether — expect other states to follow. This fragments the CTV data landscape state-by-state, making consent management operationally complex for CTV platforms relying on device-level data. For Moloco, this accelerates the value proposition of ML models trained on advertiser first-party data rather than third-party device signals. Every new state ACR restriction is a sales talking point: Moloco's optimization doesn't rely on data regulators are cracking down on.
The California Privacy Protection Agency imposed its largest-ever settlement — $2.75M against a streaming company for opt-out failures — following a $1.35M record against Tractor Supply Company. Enforcement is shifting from policy to penalties, with regulators now scrutinizing the actual mechanics of data flow, how pixels fire, how data is shared with adtech partners, and whether consent actually means consent.
The CPPA's focus on adtech data flow mechanics means every programmatic CTV player's data pipeline is under the microscope. Platforms with opaque or convoluted data sharing practices face real financial exposure. Moloco should ensure its data processing documentation is audit-ready and position its privacy posture as a competitive advantage. For sales: 'Our ML optimization runs on consented first-party signals, not the kind of third-party data sharing that just cost a streamer $2.75M.'
Amazon reported 23% YoY ad revenue growth in Q4 2025, outpacing CTV market growth by 10 points, while The Trade Desk reported 14% growth with Q1 2026 guidance projecting just 10%. Amazon's growth is credited to DSP improvements, deeper CTV partnerships with Roku and Disney, and first-party audiences across Prime Video, Fire TV, and live sports. Prime Video investment grew 127% YoY.
Amazon's divergence from TTD exposes a critical market dynamic: walled gardens with first-party commerce data are winning the CTV performance war. This is DIRECTLY relevant to Moloco's competitive positioning. Amazon's closed-loop attribution (see ad → buy on Amazon) is the gold standard for outcome measurement. Moloco must differentiate by offering similar closed-loop attribution for non-Amazon commerce — app installs, DTC purchases, in-store visits. The 'open internet' narrative that TTD champions is losing to Amazon's data gravity. Moloco should avoid positioning alongside TTD's 'open web' framing and instead lead with measurable outcomes regardless of inventory source.
MNTN continues to position itself as the 'Performance TV' platform, emphasizing lower-funnel outcomes with 100+ KPIs, integrated creative services, and real-time attribution. MNTN's bidding system uses multiple algorithms to automate media buying with dynamic daily pacing and predictive bid optimization. The platform is popular with direct-response advertisers seeking CTV ROI accountability.
MNTN is the most direct competitive threat to Moloco's CTV performance positioning. They own the 'Performance TV' brand identity and are executing on it with attribution infrastructure that speaks directly to the same buyers Moloco targets. The 100+ KPI messaging is a quantity play — Moloco should counter with quality: not just tracking outcomes, but optimizing toward them in real-time with ML. The key differentiation is that MNTN automates media buying while Moloco optimizes it — automation follows rules, ML finds patterns humans can't. Sales teams need a crisp MNTN battle card emphasizing ML-driven optimization vs. rule-based automation.
Roku is repositioning CTV as a 'commerce engine' for 2026, seeing growing demand from marketers to treat CTV as a true performance channel. Roku predicts up to 50% of streaming advertisers will subsidize CTV increases with budgets from search and social. Roku is expanding data integrations with Amazon and The Trade Desk for personalized TV advertising.
Roku's 'commerce engine' pivot is a narrative land-grab that should concern Moloco. When the #1 CTV platform by market share starts talking 'performance' and 'commerce,' it normalizes outcome-based CTV but also means Roku becomes a competitor, not just a supply partner. Roku has the device graph, the viewer data, and now the commerce framing. Moloco's counter-argument must emphasize independence from walled gardens: 'Roku optimizes for Roku. Moloco optimizes for your business outcomes across ALL CTV inventory.' The search/social budget migration Roku predicts is good news — it means lower-funnel advertisers are arriving, which plays to Moloco's strengths.
Netflix opening 80% of its inventory to programmatic buying through multiple DSPs is a massive inventory unlock for ML-optimized bidders. The Amazon Audiences integration on Netflix means first-party commerce data now flows into premium CTV inventory — this is the exact use case Moloco's app marketer and commerce media clients need. If Moloco can access Netflix inventory through DSP partnerships, this is a greenfield opportunity for outcome-based campaigns on the world's largest streaming platform.